Macro + ethics note

In democracies, priorities tend to oscillate. When people feel economically constrained, there's a big utilitarian focus. As people feel more prosperous, societies can afford stronger deontological commitments (Like foreign aid, focus on equality etc.). I’ve tried to capture that pattern in the chart below.

To put it simply, when there's more money, there's less of a focus on utilitarianism, more of a focus on global rights and wellbeing. The "Woke" movement (Highest deontological priorities) is heavily correlated with ZIRP era (Lowest interest rates period).

Constraint vs ethical scope
Model disclaimer
The red line is an estimated illustration of the theory (ethical scope expands with prosperity and contracts with constraint).
Cash availability: The interbank offered policy rate.
Estimated ethical scope (0–5): A smoothed function of ethical broadness.
Food for thought

The way I like to think of this globally is like a pond. The US is a big rock being dropped into the water. The ripples it leaves are the oscilating prosperity vs ethical scope seen in the above chart.

The UK is a smaller rock, it creates its own ripples, but also these collide with the US' ripples. These collisions create the complicated and vibrant landscape of ethics we see today.

Long-run: prosperity, ethical scope, birth rates

Below is a longer-run view of how average purchasing power (proxied by real GDP per capita), an estimated ethical scope line (0–5), and birth rates (total fertility rate) tend to move together across decades.

Deontological rights and prosperity negatively correlate with birth rates, this is seen consistently globally. Maybe we make ourselves so propserous we stop existing anymore.

Prosperity: real GDP per capita (constant dollars).
Birth rates: total fertility rate (births per woman).
Ethical scope (0–5): estimated from prosperity (log-scaled), with lag/smoothing.